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A long-only, unleveraged tactical allocation model using published BTS Strength Zones across a fixed universe of 49 industry ETFs produced 27.0% CAGR versus 11.3% for buy-and-hold SPY over the 2003–2025 whole-calendar-year backtest.
SAN FRANCISCO - Californer -- During the 23-year period, a $10,000 starting value grew to $2,455,275 for the strategy versus $116,729 for SPY.
Time in Market was 99.3%, indicating near-continuous market exposure. Full-window volatility was 19.5% versus 18.7% for SPY.
Maximum drawdown was -28.9% versus -55.2% for SPY. Drawdowns nevertheless remained a meaningful source of risk.
In SPY up years, BTS Strength Zones produced 30.7% filtered CAGR versus 17.1% for SPY. Across the three SPY down years—2008, 2018 and 2022—the strategy produced 5.0% filtered CAGR versus -21.0% for SPY. Positive compounded performance across those selected down years does not imply that losses were avoided within each year.
BTS Strength Zones beat SPY on CAGR in 95.9% of rolling three-year windows and all rolling five-year windows. The strategy's worst rolling CAGR was 6.1% over three years and 11.9% over five years.
The model applies published BTS Strength Zones to a fixed universe of 49 industry ETFs. A portfolio-level VIX 50/35 regime controls entry. Entered ETFs are equal-weighted at target-decision events and held through the scheduled end of each BTS Strength Zone. When no BTS Strength Zone is entered, the portfolio holds SPY while the regime is ON and SHY while it is OFF.
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Read the full press release:
https://www.backtestedstrategies.com/articles/bts-strength-zones-industry-etfs-backtest-results/
Access the BTS Strength Zones — Industry ETFs Backtest Results report:
https://www.backtestedstrategies.com/strategies/bts-strength-zones-industry-etfs-backtest/
About Backtested Strategies
Backtested Strategies (BTS) is a financial research publisher operated by Marquantex LLC, focused on systematic trading strategies, rigorous backtests and market tools for serious investors. BTS publishes backtests under a standardized, institutional-grade methodology that makes strategy rules, assumptions, benchmarks, trading-cost treatment, portfolio accounting and reporting conventions explicit. Its research is designed to help investors judge strategy behavior, risk, implementation demands and portfolio fit with the full structure of each test in view.
Time in Market was 99.3%, indicating near-continuous market exposure. Full-window volatility was 19.5% versus 18.7% for SPY.
Maximum drawdown was -28.9% versus -55.2% for SPY. Drawdowns nevertheless remained a meaningful source of risk.
In SPY up years, BTS Strength Zones produced 30.7% filtered CAGR versus 17.1% for SPY. Across the three SPY down years—2008, 2018 and 2022—the strategy produced 5.0% filtered CAGR versus -21.0% for SPY. Positive compounded performance across those selected down years does not imply that losses were avoided within each year.
BTS Strength Zones beat SPY on CAGR in 95.9% of rolling three-year windows and all rolling five-year windows. The strategy's worst rolling CAGR was 6.1% over three years and 11.9% over five years.
The model applies published BTS Strength Zones to a fixed universe of 49 industry ETFs. A portfolio-level VIX 50/35 regime controls entry. Entered ETFs are equal-weighted at target-decision events and held through the scheduled end of each BTS Strength Zone. When no BTS Strength Zone is entered, the portfolio holds SPY while the regime is ON and SHY while it is OFF.
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Read the full press release:
https://www.backtestedstrategies.com/articles/bts-strength-zones-industry-etfs-backtest-results/
Access the BTS Strength Zones — Industry ETFs Backtest Results report:
https://www.backtestedstrategies.com/strategies/bts-strength-zones-industry-etfs-backtest/
About Backtested Strategies
Backtested Strategies (BTS) is a financial research publisher operated by Marquantex LLC, focused on systematic trading strategies, rigorous backtests and market tools for serious investors. BTS publishes backtests under a standardized, institutional-grade methodology that makes strategy rules, assumptions, benchmarks, trading-cost treatment, portfolio accounting and reporting conventions explicit. Its research is designed to help investors judge strategy behavior, risk, implementation demands and portfolio fit with the full structure of each test in view.
Source: Backtested Strategies
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