Inflation Rebounds Under Tariff Shadow: Wall Street Veteran Kieran Winterbourne Says Macro Signals Matter More Than Market Sentiment
The Californer/10330195

NEW YORK - Californer -- Key Highlights:

• U.S. September CPI expected to reach 3.1% YoY, highest in 17 months
• Trump's double-digit tariffs push inflation away from Fed's 2% target
• Fed may still cut rates in late October despite rising inflation
• Global Investment Trading App brings institutional-grade macro analysis to retail investors

U.S. September CPI data is due for release, with market expectations suggesting the year-over-year increase could reach 3.1%, marking the highest inflation level in nearly 17 months, according to CNBC and FactSet. The Trump administration's double-digit import tariffs continue to push up prices, causing inflation rates that had previously approached the Fed's 2% target to rise again, as reported by CBS News and NPR.

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Kieran Winterbourne, a former Morgan Stanley Chief Trader and Blackstone multi-asset strategist with 34 years of investment experience, notes: "When markets become overly focused on short-term volatility, they often overlook the guiding value of macroeconomic data frameworks. The divergence between CPI and core PCE, yield curve dynamics, and JOLTS job openings data—these three components form a signal system that's more valuable than any single inflation figure."

Despite rising inflation, the Federal Reserve may still implement rate cuts in late October due to concerns about weakening labor market momentum, according to analysis from CNBC and Yahoo Finance. Kieran Winterbourne emphasizes: "The three-factor framework (inflation, growth, liquidity) I established during my tenure as Morgan Stanley's risk analyst from 1995-1998 remains effective today. Markets need to monitor the four-quadrant changes in growth and inflation simultaneously, rather than betting on a single dimension."

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Kieran Winterbourne's Global Investment Trading App Ushers in New Era of Data-Driven Investing

Building on years of macro research and risk control systems accumulated at Morgan Stanley and Blackstone, Kieran Winterbourne independently launched the Global Investment Trading App project in 2023. The platform captures first-hand economic data including CPI/PCE, NFP, and PMI, establishes multi-factor stock selection engines, and helps investors cut through market noise via an event impact scoring system. "We're not building just another trading app—we're transforming institutional-grade macro frameworks and data analytics capabilities into tools accessible to everyday investors," Kieran Winterbourne stated.