The Californer - California Noir: The Plot to Rob the Federal Reserve

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Drowning in Debt and Desperate: California's Hail Mary to Capture the White House in 2028

SAN JOSE, Calif. - Californer -- Money doesn't lie. It just changes outfits before the dance. Where is our hard-boiled Bogart when we need him—to drag racketeers and grifters into the daylight?

Like Chandler, Hammett, and Macdonald's detectives, follow enough ledgers in this business and you learn one lesson: nobody hires you to find the truth, they hire you to find the version of the truth that lets them keep what they've got. Sam Spade learns the jeweled bird was never the point — everyone chasing it was just converting someone else's fortune into their own. Philip Marlowe gets hired for a blackmail note and finds a family still paying, one way or another, to keep old rot from reaching the papers. Lew Archer spends whole books discovering that today's crime is just the last installment on a debt someone's parents ran up and never disclosed. The visible problem is never the real one. You don't ask the client what they want — they'll tell you a story that flatters them. You ask the books.

So run California's numbers the way you'd run down a family in one of those novels: not by what the principals say, but by where the money was standing when it went missing.

California wants the presidency. Not for the reasons it says.

Listen to Sacramento's political class talk about 2028 and you'll hear the language of national leadership — climate resolve, immigrant dignity, a bulwark against Washington dysfunction. What you won't hear is the balance sheet. California carries north of $265 billion in unfunded pension debt across CalPERS and CalSTRS alone. Add retiree health care, deferred infrastructure, and local government shortfalls, and credible estimates put the state's total liability well past $1 trillion. That is a structural hole no state tax increase can plausibly fill, because the people who'd pay it have a moving van and an accountant.

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Only one institution in America can paper over a liability that size without asking permission: the Federal Reserve. A state cannot print money. A president — through appointment power, deficit spending, and pressure on the central bank — can get close enough. Follow the incentive and the ambition stops looking like idealism and starts looking like liquidity management. A California-aligned White House doesn't need to say "bail out CalPERS." It only needs to keep the deficit spigot open and let inflation quietly shrink the debt's real value, while Washington's balance sheet absorbs a political cost Sacramento can't afford to own.

The same instinct shows up in miniature at the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority: decades of public money absorbed, chronic operating deficits, a light-rail network many residents avoid — while records show senior staff and specialized roles drawing total compensation that dwarfs the median household income of the county funding it. VTA isn't an outlier. It's the operating model: extract, underperform, insulate the decision-makers from the decisions.

The rot runs into more of California's subfloor joists. San Luis Obispo County's unfunded pension liability reportedly broke $1 billion in 2025, up nearly $70 million in a single year. Santa Cruz County reportedly owes CalPERS $628.7 million and counting, with another $158 million in unfunded retiree health benefits stacked on top. Multiply that arithmetic by fifty-eight counties, and Sacramento's balance sheet is just the headline.

Then there's the monument to the whole approach: California's high-speed rail. Sold to voters in 2008 at $33 billion, the project's own authority now pegs the cost at $126+ billion — a fourfold increase — with not one mile of track yet carrying a train between the cities it was built to connect. The state's answer to the overrun isn't cancellation; it's a request for more time, more money, and eventually more federal help. Begin with an appealing number. Let the real cost surface only after reversal becomes politically unthinkable. Then look upward for someone else to cover the difference.

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None of this requires malice — only the ordinary logic of an institution that has run out of its own room to maneuver and has correctly identified where the room still exists. California isn't seeking the presidency to lead the country. It's seeking the presidency to refinance itself, through the one printing press Sacramento doesn't have.

Here the thesis sharpens: print too much fiat currency, and the issuer becomes its own counterfeiter. Sherlock Holmes understood civilian skullduggery: in "The Adventure of the Three Garridebs," a fabricated inheritance lures a man out of his house so a hidden counterfeiter's press can be quietly retrieved. In "The Adventure of the Engineer's Thumb," a hydraulic press hired out for legitimate work turns out to be stamping counterfeit coin in a cellar. In both stories the press itself is neutral — it cannot tell real currency from counterfeit. Only the operator's intent decides which one it produces. A government printing press run to cover a state's arithmetic, rather than to protect the currency's integrity, is counterfeiting by another name. But the stakes are exponentially bigger.

Perhaps the ticket should run honestly, under its actual platform: California seeks to elect an inside man. Today he waits outside the vault. After the next presidential election, he may have the combination, not just to the safe, but also the printing press itself.

About the Candidate

Peter Coe Verbica is a Congressional candidate for California's 19th District. He holds a J.D. from Santa Clara University School of Law and an M.S. in Real Estate Development from MIT and is a Certified Financial Planner® (CFP®). A fifth-generation Californian, Verbica is Principal and Managing Director of Silicon Private Wealth (https://www.siliconprivatewealth.com/)®. His writing includes political and analytical essays as well as a collection of Sherlock Holmes pastiches, several of which have been prominently featured in David Marcum's MX Book of New Sherlock Holmes Stories series.

(Image source: ChatGPT 2026 with inputs by P. Verbica.)

Paid for by Verbica for Congress.