The Californer - International Institute of Forecasters Announces Wayfair as Winner of the 2025 IIF Forecasting Practice Competition

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CHARLOTTE, N.C. - Californer -- The International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) is pleased to announce Wayfair as the winner of the 2025 IIF Forecasting Practice Competition. The winner, Wayfair, receives the prestigious IIF Award for the Impact of Forecasting in Practice, along with a $10,000 prize.

The IIF Award for the Impact of Forecasting in Practice recognizes businesses and institutions that demonstrate significant impact through the application of forecasting and contribute to the forecasting community. This year's competition, the first of its kind for the IIF, showcased outstanding examples of forecasting in practice.

Entries were open to companies and institutions, with teams of up to five contributors. Finalist teams were required to attend the Foresight Practitioner Conference in person for the Final Round and will submit details of their methodology and impact for publication in a special issue of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting. An impact statement from an executive of the organization was also required.

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Applications were evaluated based on five key criteria:

Impact to the business or institution, including quantifiable value-add and cost considerations.
Impact on the forecasting community through advancing technology, sharing best practices, and publications.
Degree of technical and/or organizational challenge overcome.
Role of forecasting in the solution and the portion of value-add attributable to forecasting.
Style and quality of the application and presentation.

The competition included a call for submissions on October 15, 2024, initial applications due on December 9, 2024, and finalists announced on January 10, 2025. The five finalists selected were Ipiranga, Wayfair, OpenGrid Europe, HP, and Maersk. Final applications were due February 10, 2025, with finalist presentations held on Sunday, March 2, 2025. The winner, Wayfair, was announced on Monday, March 3, 2025 at the Foresight Practitioner Conference in Charlotte, NC, and a reprisal of the winner's presentation is scheduled to take place at the conference on Tuesday, March 4, 2025.

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Wayfair's application was based on their internal demand forecasting system, Demetra, which produces monthly demand forecasts over a 1 to 18 month horizon at the product level across the US, for millions of products. Compared to Wayfair's legacy model, Demtra reduced forecast root mean squared error from 10% to 2%, reduced forecast bias from 7% to 2%, and reduced forecast refresh time from 22 days to 5 days, driving financial impact to the company in the tens of millions of dollars.

The 2025 Competition Committee was chaired by Chris Fry and co-chaired by Pierre Pinson, with members Matthew Schneider, Len Tashman, and Elaine Deschamps. The Adjudication Panel included the committee members along with Nikos Kourentzes and Tao Hong.

About the International Institute of Forecasters

The International Institute of Forecasters (www.forecasters.org) is dedicated to promoting and improving the science and practice of forecasting. The IIF provides resources, conferences, and publications for forecasters worldwide.